Netizens Hello everybody, welcome to this edition of long way to go? Once the deal after it would have an enormous impact on the industry, the comprehensive management of China's financial industry, the road will go from here? on these issues, today we have invited four guests to explore together with you, First of all introduce myself around the capital markets from the National Development Research Center, Masanori Life Insurance Company's Chairman and President CEO Miss Zhang Hongtao, Zhang Hello.
Zhang Hongtao: Hello everybody.
NetEase Finance: sitting in the middle man from Fortune International Group chairman, Ms. Hung Ying, Ms. Hung Hello.
Zhang Hongtao: Hello, Hello, everybody.
NetEase Finance: Ms. Hung is also a senior accounting experts, carefully explain later. sitting next to you who is very familiar with the Central University of Finance, China Banking Research Center, Guo Tian Yong teacher, Hello.
NetEase Finance: The first question first proposed, Ping Could the acquisition of Shenzhen Development Bank, among the difficulties that may arise? How should we respond?
Guo Tian Yong: It should be said that peace is a matter of course the acquisition of Shenzhen Development thing, came news from last week when we have made prediction, I say the possibility is very great. from both parties point of view, the controlling shareholder of Shenzhen Development Group bridge has been in the past two years the state up for sale, looking for buyers abroad last year to open the line to pass and Shenzhen Development Cooperation (the message), but did not become a reality, when we have done comments, we feel that bridge may be sold, but not necessarily buy the CDB, the CDB has just because of the commercial transformation, it will not will be defined as the retail-oriented banks are in dispute, I am afraid that the CDB is not willing to engage in retail-based, so the deal was not formed.
but as bridge is concerned, they have been looking for buyers, Ping has a soft spot for banks, Citibank in 2006 and compete for it a controlling stake in Guangdong Development Bank, was safely out of the 200 billion investment program, even more than Citigroup's investment are high, but in the end the competition failed, and later it went to the acquisition of Shenzhen Commercial Bank, it has been more interested in the bank.
now it is out of the bank is a small bank in the Pearl River Delta with sixty-seven a bank, and Ping An Insurance is a national large companies, from the mixed operation point of view, it must find a large national bank, Shenzhen Development is more in line with its appetite, from the buyers and sellers point of view, they are a willing buyer, a willing seller, you love me May, Peace Now has issued notice, and I want to be able to reach a final deal.
NetEase: Guo said that this situation I would like you should be able to reach the agreement, but even after the opening of Shenzhen Development general meeting of shareholders, the Commission may need to do some approval, which may have some details, Ms. Hong is a senior accounting person, which you compare what the details would be worried about?
Hong Ying: are you from the transaction itself situation I would like things as peace is concerned, so many years it has been a very ambitious development goals, or is called a dream, blueprints, Mixed want to make very good financial behavior of the company. specific to the M & A perspective, I think there is some need for us to think deeper level, our strategic goal of positioning is very critical, if simply want to mix business, from a strategic rather than simply to consider from a financial structure, we need to consider the integration of Finally, do not depend entirely on the current decision-making, but to consider the strategic goals, mergers and acquisitions completed in the future, do you have the ability to integrate it, not only to the behavior of short-term financial profits, but to the long-term development objectives, need to to consider the long-term level.
There is also a very important issue is the integration of acquisitions completed since there is no ability to do integration? including the then McKinsey global survey has also been done, the success rate of mergers and acquisitions in almost 30-40% (success rate) is not high, and why? This is not a technical problem, nor is the question of money, all that cultural conflict and integration capabilities, including you have the ability to manage the enterprise.
other From a financial and accounting point of view, also need to consider the existing accounting system, the existing National Insurance Mixed policies can not achieve the strategic goal of enterprise integration needs of the final, there are some integration need to rely on the support of national policy, national policy can be considered ever be fulfilled. but also consider the market reaction, the enterprises have been several mergers and acquisitions, why do not end successfully? also need worthy of our consideration.
NetEase Finance: Ms. Hung their own concerns, ask the teacher worried that Zhang Where?
Zhang Hongtao: the development of the acquisition of Shenzhen Ping An additional shares of the new bridge, which is inevitable, because it is a financial investor rather than strategic investors, it is necessary to make way once the lifting of the ban, because the capital is the profit-driven , and is determined to win the peace, quotes and programs from its point of view is just the adjective It is from the original one from the regional (Shekou) and small company into a is bound to find a (large, with matching) bank, I think it is now found in the deep development is very appropriate, and the structure of the two companies, corporate governance is relatively similar. Now it seems you love me willing, but the teacher just said Hung, they need to go through shareholders, while also subject to regulatory approval, which is very important, which is not only a regulatory department, safe to consider the approval of China Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Banking Regulatory Commission to consider the development of deep regulation, but because this involves the problem of equity issuance and mergers and acquisitions, it is also involved in the Commission, the deal to be successful, from a regulatory point of view, but also through the ? how to achieve? This is the future to come to the conclusion.
now for peace, it would like to acquisition of Shenzhen Development, is to give peace to form a broader business platform, enables customers to enjoy the same company to many services. The other part is the (beat) basis, to improve future asset allocation, product structure, looking for a broader approach to development and platform. I think that if the successful development of the acquisition of Shenzhen Ping An operating in China should be said that the way a landmark event, to go through the teacher expressed the best wishes, Hong teachers have some concerns about integration, Zhang considered the issue through regulation.
Hong Ying: the acquisition of shares is the new bridge, involving foreign investment, it is possible also through Ministry of Commerce, at least through the four departments.
NetEase Finance: the fourth spot went to the guests, the Chinese Society of International Economic Relations Director Tan Yaling teacher, whether you believe that this acquisition will succeed the case, what are the details of which will hinder Ping acquisition of Shenzhen Development?
Tan Yaling: the case of foreign markets is now more complex, there are some areas in the mixed operation problems, as a developing country from the sub-sector industry in the development process to the mix, we developed and then start Mixed development when there are very different, so the Chinese policy-makers should also consider the insurance company integrated the acquisition of a bank's future prospects. because I have heard a lot of lessons the teacher Zhang Hongtao, insurance is still necessary to protect the most basic premise of We engage in insurance company qualification coupled with the current insurance system, its task is very heavy, so the decision makers will be cautious about this matter, whether successful or not, in terms of China's development, security and stability of meaning of considerations should be the first one.
NetEase: Zhang is the founder of the insurance industry, he has also been proposed comprehensive management and mixed operation is not the same concept, can now talk about? < br> Zhang Hongtao: raised the issue raised in China, the beginning of the across the business, such as my insurance company, can go to business banking, you can go to engage in securities, the securities industry may engage in insurance, banking, banks can engage in securities, insurance, etc., started talking about the financial system of cross-industry business . Why was it mixed operations and comprehensive business? ago many people think can be called mixed operation can also be called integrated operation, but I do not think so, I think that mixed operation is a spiral to the comprehensive management of progress Many people raised in a period of time concept? example would be relatively easy to understand:
Mixed similar to what we usually talked about a small grocery store, grocery store there was everything but the quality is not very good, quality is not high, and put a mess, so the Chinese people used the word is good, It is described as a grocery store. But gradually grocery store can not meet the consumer demand of ordinary people, because the product regardless of grade, is a type, and how the product category, to raise standards, it is necessary to solve a problem of specialization and increase the amount, This requires separate operation, I think the separate operation to solve the mixed industrial age problems of quality and professionalism.
separate operation like? I described it as brand, the package back lesbians, LV, Chanel or something.
NetEase: I know, the last is the comprehensive management of the department store?
Zhang Hongtao: Exactly, modern department store. I have said, when mixed operation disorganized, to the comprehensive management to resolve quality problems, with the brand, to achieve a professional, mixed and integrated business process it is cross-industry middle management, cross-industry business process carved a few level, the students in class I said so, it is department store, and now there are many Chinese in the United States after entering the department store brand stores all good. The financial mixed operation to separate operation from then to integrated management, That and there was a gradual process, comprehensive management solution to reduce cost, since there are stores to buy the brand that the store only, we found no? stores are an extension of the same, you see only the original LV bag Now LV shoes started doing watches, jewelry and so on.
NetEase: Zhang, Ping An original sell insurance, they would have China Ping An Bank, now wants to develop into a department store through the deep, if It integrates well, might become Masanori your insurance company is also CEO, insurance companies and banks will not be the starting point of contradiction, they integrate the two where the greatest difficulty?
Zhang Hongtao: It should be said that the insurance, securities and banking are the same financial the three pillars, their essence is the same, and I have said, what is financial? simply described is the Card passed a brush can not see, do not feel bad; but if you want to hold a million of money to buy, you need a large box, some financial speculators to buy hundreds of millions of cash may be less than even the room piled . to the bank, too, how much money deposit, the final out, only a single savings, insurance is the same, no matter how much insurance to buy is to get an insurance policy last.
So banking, securities and insurance are the pillars of the financial, but their different, as the banks, its main profit model is spread, the money coming into the bank, and then get lending spreads. to the performance of securities companies charge. insurance companies established fee, there are commissions, there are two other different (earnings model), securities and banking must be returned to the people, but in some life insurance, such as aviation accident insurance, safe landing the plane took off again, this money no repayment of principal to the insurance company classified. Why do not payback? insured by the law of large numbers, and why 20 (premium) out of trouble can a 40 million? is a paid 20 millions did not fall from the sky to form pools of capital money to support a particular person falling from the sky in compensation.
banks and insurance companies is the essence of different banks and insurance companies are now integrated together in specific business must be separate supervision, consolidated operating without a firewall, the risk will be deferred.
NetEase Finance: the future may be consolidated operating, but still separate supervision?
Zhang Hongtao: so can not directly said that now we do this a company, the above is a comprehensive business, the following services, such as banking, finance, insurance, and the middle of the business are independent legal entities, subject to different regulatory control. but this has raised a question now the three regulatory authorities (CBRC, CIRC, CSRC) is parallel with the accelerated pace of comprehensive management, in particular the success of a number of integrated business case is bound to be discussed in the regulatory issues, in the end what form, the future management of the three will be an integrated department or a unit of the following three sectors? definitely need to seriously consider and explore.
word, comprehensive management is not equal to Mixed, Mixed to chaos because of years, but the comprehensive management is in progress and rise above the mixed operation, so make sure to monitor, Zenmeyangzuo good comprehensive management, how to guard against risk? must have a very comprehensive monitoring system, mechanisms and institutions to do the comprehensive management success.
NetEase: Zhang put forward their concerns, who will monitor after integration? We would like to ask Ms. Hung, before you were involved in a number of mergers and acquisitions, according to your analysis, after the development of China's Ping An M & A deep, not fusion Where will the contradiction?
Hong Ying: I can not say at present, can introduce an example and this example of the global financial crisis situation is an open secret, you know, AIG is doing the original Insurance-based mixed operation, and later developed into the country's top boss of the consolidated operating entity, but why in the current financial turmoil was the combat and defeat it will affect the world? we know it has been basically split, and become a disguised form state. I attended the CEO, chief financial Cheung Kong Graduate School classes study, the financial crisis in September last year, Black 13 days we just on Wall Street, AIG's global chairman met, including the CEO, Consumer Finance Chairman and Chairman of Greater China, at the beginning When these things did not happen, we only as a very good case to us to give lectures over three days later without a problem, these leaders and deliberately arrived at the school where we were (Columbia University), while the one o'clock time with us On these issues, hope that China's enterprises can save them. then they told us that the U.S. government will likely be making, he said we must be dead, has been sentenced to death, only suspended it. (This is original words).
he told us the story, in the mixed operation process, there is a re-insurance business, then make a small investment bank, that is, we say that the athletes themselves have become judges, and then into the Zuozhuang the suzerain, the agency actually more than seventy thousand of their team only 30 a few people, AIG several hundred billion dollars of revenue a year, but annual income of this sector was more than thirty billion, but it led to AIG's wiped out, and why? is because the loss of control.
From this example, we can see so well in the United States arising under the financial control system tragic scene, leading to qualifying or two in the fall of large multinational groups , the real cause of their downfall is because of regulatory control, or under the seemingly comprehensive system of loopholes.
to China is concerned, our system now, especially in monitoring levels of several different departments, but the situation there is no uniform regulatory mechanism , I very much agree with Zhang said, a prerequisite for success is to do must be very good, strong coordination of the regulatory mechanism, if not impossible to do a good job, we were over there, Ye Hao Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch Well, the President told us what lectures, his story the next day to die, holding the box with our worship, the first words are all Chinese, including the initiator of the sub-prime come up with back to us about the CASE, as it what a good case, the result went bankrupt a few days into the lessons we learned. which is something we need to think carefully about the leadership issue, if these issues are not well of our own, in-depth Thinking to start doing (definitely not work), according to our own words was retaining only the original insurance. This is the U.S. government set the principles, I give you 700 billion, but definitely not allow you to do it again this kind of thing, people back down, we'll hand, they follow the people (the wrong way) to run in this premise, we need to have prepared, if not ready to start engaging in financial derivatives, including the world's financial accounting standards in these areas have not yet reached a consensus, based on what we have? regulatory policy? implemented What is the accounting system? are not prepared in these circumstances how this problem? This is what we need to consider.
NetEase: Guo said the two companies have your love I wish you, too, as lovers, we liked each other, but the real also agree, and now we face a problem, including major leaders earlier in his speech, the CBRC also said before, the financial crisis, in the future should be Mixing too, after the process is complicated not know which part of the loopholes in the collapse of the entire group. just teacher talk about the AIG Group, Hung had this situation.
but we certainly see the benefits of comprehensive management is self-evident, the service more efficient, able to provide one-stop financial services, I would like to service quality and efficiency will increase and the risk attendant risks, the financial industry Well, always in the efficiency and hold a balance between risks. Now in our ability to monitor the level and risk has not improved the situation, the pace of Mixed rush there will be problems go far too fast, everyone just talked about this issue. But the U.S. financial We often say that after the crisis is not a word future personnel of both sides to take over the business and do business integration, to avoid gulping situation; after completing the second is the integration of the advantages of the use of two platforms for deeper cooperation, development of more high-quality financial products, so as to achieve form an effective firewall between the effective risk isolation, it is very important; second, from an external point of view, our external regulatory agencies (line c will) discuss the formation of an effective mechanism for the formation of such an effective financial mechanism external supervision.
Now everyone has a grasp on the consolidated business and will not appear in the U.S. financial crisis, financial default swaps, we are a relatively small number of controllable risk financial products, if there is such a certainty, then Ping An Group has done with better internal control, the occurrence of 1 +1
NetEase Finance: Guo to make a point, in addition to external monitoring, the internal integration is also very important. China's Ping An Bank, Ping An has a following, it will not be competitive and deep development of the industry? everyone guess, they both one should be how to integrate? will not integrate together? still have other ways?
Tan Yaling: I think the concept of economic globalization, more and more people will be mixed industry, but should see that If you look at the situation in developed countries, their level of separation of Mixed higher than ours, and now they are from the sub-sector, Mixed went to a professional, specialized sub-sector should be the advanced stage, they emphasized that the characteristics of each financial institution, Both Citigroup, JP Morgan or any other bank, has its own unique characteristics, such as the main retail or wholesale level, this feature should play out. We are the state-owned specialized banks, the characteristics you can not lose, so that it does not the market appears homogeneous competition, separation of Ye Hao, professional Ye Hao, be sure to keep your long-term and advantages, such development can take a firm stand in order to obtain your unique market share experiences from the United States from China has been walked the road of reform and opening up, especially the last ten years of reform and development banks point of view, there should be some lessons, and now we are too serious homogenization, the overall competitiveness will bring great impact, whether it is safe or deep development, combined the advantages of the two together, where after, the future framework of how to maintain peace under the original plate, this is the need to think, rather than simply to the two banks combined together, for its characteristics profit point and the product should be concerned, so as to achieve the true meaning of the merger.
now we are often in the pursuit of a model and framework, and the West in pursuit of profits and goals, the goal is to take a firm position which , a firm which plate. We in the reform framework, organizational structure, and mergers and acquisitions, the merger process must be clear what to do, a clear point where our profit, advantage goes, I think this can be played on relatively long-term development good support, to achieve its desired effect.
Zhang Hongtao: I would like to add. Honourable concerns about the macro, the micro I have a fear that development is safe to buy a deep-fixed-price , 22, this 22 is a premium, the price can not be changed, why I started the judge is , and the additional 20 days before the suspension is the average price, if the stock market is good, peace will make money, if the extreme stock market decline, because bridge is about to share next year can be thawed in October, also in October next year a long time, if the stock market in the process has greatly changed, there will be a big problem.
According to the present written or unwritten, to whom the main offer, which belongs to the type of monitoring to go department, this is the safe acquisition of Shenzhen development, regulatory authorities should be the Insurance Regulatory Commission. I do things has always been within the scope of controllable risk controllable risk to do something before the next October 22 to ensure that prices dollars or more? You can control the risk? Or buy a time bomb?
NetEase Finance: The time bomb is also safe to buy more than one of these.
Hong Ying: This is my teacher talks was more concerned about and concern, everyone in the mergers and acquisitions, many are from the perspective of managers to consider issues such as the development of derivatives business or company, but few people mention this acquisition will bring any benefit to shareholder value? actually it is very critical, because the two are listed companies, you should be responsible to shareholders. But I see all the information point of view, which did not say what does this do to the shareholders, but just like Zhang teacher talk, such a high price for such a long lock-up period, once a change in the stock market, no matter which approach, the final winner is the new bridge, my initial estimates a bit, it can benefit from 9000000000-150 billion about.
Zhang Hongtao: No, between 14 to 15.5 billion.
Hong Ying: If this is the result, we can give the prospect of delivering value to shareholders in what areas? safe management did not explain this thing I think we need to think about this. In addition, no matter what kind of mergers and acquisitions, development and peace temporarily say something deep, from the professional level, when we have to consider the merger a very deep-seated problems, consider it financial structure, considering its unforeseen risks, which are completely beyond the concept of market or commercial transactions, the concept of non-commercial transactions something. like Coca-Cola to buy Huiyuan, as leadership, CEO are set well, but in the end there ( obstacle), anti-monopoly. We have to consider these factors, listed companies (decision) should be through the general meeting of shareholders, independent directors should be independent opinion on this, but now we do not see the independent director's independent opinion on this issue. < br> NetEase Finance: in April this year, where we witnessed a historic moment, SDB setting a maximum amount of transactions. peace rose 2.28% today, which is not too much, Shenzhen Development limit. Ping is currently trading volume at 4.06 billion, 4.08 billion development of deep, deep development of this data record 4.08 billion the maximum amount of history. We see this data how are you feeling? if you buy on the safe development of the still relatively optimistic about the deep.
Zhang Hongtao: in particular, a major shareholder, that the market development of deep recognition of the deal, safe start, also rose a lot, but later Raining Cats fall to less than inflation.
Hong Ying: From this point speaking, I have to admire the deep development of all the senior executives, including its current chairman, Mr. Newman, indeed the former U.S. Treasury Secretary, who is definitely in the capital master operation, absolutely we have to learn, but unfortunately We did not learn.
NetEase Finance: Hong teacher Huazhongyouhua ah feeling.
Hong Ying: (laughs) did not mean, but we should really study them in the whole concept, subject matter and timing of the control on are doing very well, you can look at the record two years, the stock limit the problem of insufficient capital adequacy ratio adjustment, Baosteel last intervention, the intervention of gold, and now is a safe intervention, you can see the process of this series.
Zhang Hongtao: Because he himself is a financial investor, Newbridge is certainly a financial investor, due to find out mechanisms, and their goal is fame and fortune, and now determined to win the development of deep peace, which is what investors as a ?
Hong Ying: This is very interesting, just a few teachers mentioned that a very interesting question, because we have a safe bank, after the acquisition of Shenzhen Development, Ping An Insurance has become the largest shareholder of Shenzhen Development, will be among their own will not compete with the industry? This is exactly the problem I just want to ask, as a deep investment in the development of safe large group, it is considered as a strategic investment or a financial investment considerations? otherwise and Ping An Bank should put in what position?
NetEase Finance: Tan teacher to ask the views of the teacher's point of view because of Tan and we are not the same every time. Do you think peace between the Bank and Shenzhen Development What is the relationship in the future?
Zhang Hongtao: Whatever it is investment, he has to make money.
Tan Yaling: I think the module from the bank, the deep development of the basic modules of the module may be better than the Ping An Bank, just a few teachers to the development of module efficiency and deep framework for peace than the relative Banks better. Ping An Insurance Ping An Bank had in a lot of the big limitations of the framework, and deep development as a bank, its impact in the market, including market, structure, customers and products, have a great share and roles.
NetEase Finance: What is the future we see or Ping An Bank Shenzhen Development Bank? the original network will be renamed?
Tan Yaling: hard to say.
Zhang Hongtao: I think the name change SDB do not change is the will of major shareholders, but for from the banking business, or in deep-oriented development must, as compared to Ping An Bank, Shenzhen Development Bank to be more mature in the business, while Ping An Bank credit card and other retail operations in the deep development of superior But I think deep development in the banking business will still play a leading role.
NetEase: I see that China is safe to say, the Ping An Bank customers are now only 15.7% coverage, but if added after Shenzhen Development , can reach more than 80% coverage, their strategy is proposed: a client account can enjoy through a variety of services and products. this phrase we how to analyze the trend of their future, SDB will often sell in China Ping An Insurance Business?
Zhang Hongtao: peace in the bank's insurance now account for about 15% of customers who want the future through the acquisition of Shenzhen Development Bank to customers in the insurance business in the possession of their share to 80%, I think this is a wonderful aspiration, but depends on the specific how to do. is now safe holding of the Shenzhen Development Bank, is the holding company's products can not? I think we may not. Bank worth mentioning, no matter whether the insurance company, capital is profit-driven, and the pursuit of profit Although you are my controlling shareholder, but you have difficulty in marketing the product in my place, I still will not sell you. Why is a bank insurance? many banks have their own insurance company, but not necessarily sold on the network its own that bank insurance, try to sell people the insurance company, which is a feature of China.
NetEase: Shenzhen Development Bank is the future there may be peace in China, but also Life.
Zhang Hongtao : China's current situation is like, but if the insurance of peace, certainly safe to sell their own, but if the peace of the product is poor, the good country life, perhaps traitorous longevity.
NetEase: If Ping Through the acquisition of Shenzhen Development Bank, said that the financial system should be a landmark event, we got the data, Bank of Communications and Bank of Beijing shares granted to insurance companies, but this, in turn, insurance companies, the acquisition of banks between the two What is the difference? Tan teachers how to look?
Tan Yaling: Now we are talking about a market behavior, market focus is to talk about the incident, but the problem is our system, our system, although the bank to purchase the insurance-based Ping An, But our regulators are separate, the insurance can not control the future does not depend on the agency, but on China's overall framework, including our discussion of capital markets, we continue to push the product, but our system is imperfect, we need to do is complete the system, and the market to match, not the market out of touch. We had something so exciting, if regulators do not pass the final would be for whatever reason? now clearly the case of separate supervision, If you become a mixed business model, which regulatory regime in the case of the core being regulated? This is the biggest problem, so much talk about China's financial building, we can not just put the Western model, framework, combinatorics over, and make It's culture, strategy, learning experience over, it is most important, no matter what you do you ultimately want to control risk is to make money, this is crucial, said so long time, so lively, but there are still question mark , not sure.
NetEase: Just now you said Zhang also has concerns, it is three parallel regulatory authorities, is not also need a other agencies and coordination of the three departments do?
Zhang Hongtao : No ...
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