Stock market > the amount of the share price, like oil is to the car, the car can run far, the key to the adequacy of oil; Also, how much room for growth stock, largely to see how much volume accumulation.
last lap friend to me for advice within the broader market continued to heavy volume in 3000 but the price stagnation line, does that mean at the top come? it is no wonder they have such worries, the market rose from 2300 to 3000 multi-multi-point, double the number of stocks rose in a row In the case of heavy volume stagflation risks are very worried about what comes naturally. The author of the article in the last, also stressed the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market is in the history of the strongest line of fire, the long and short line of the fight in 3000 will certainly tragic, and ultimately winner who is now forecast does bear the risk.
so-called This phenomenon usually comes on top of the technical means, the market outlook is bearish. The current disk characteristics and Although the characteristics of the top, from the point of view on line-level, expressed as its more appropriate to raise the bottom after.
after raising the bottom of the main point that is pre-2300 institutions have been unable to continue to absorb more of the chips, and only pulled the index to another important Fuchou area, and then repeated shocks Xihuo. we must be careful, I say that in 3000 the vicinity of the main accumulation rather than shipping. that is, the shock is more like is a form of higher trunking, the major general is still in the Jiancang, 3000 points and a line is the largest in the history of intensive bargaining chip area, the best in this accumulation, but, of course, is certainly a bargaining chip to attract a relatively low valuation of the industry. Why Now the higher valuations the more garbage, the better valuations counter to the very low, which is the main preferred legerdemain, and the time-tested, specifically did not say, we can think about themselves.
general to Look, the next few weeks on the Shanghai index will still point of ~ 3200 points in 2900 fluctuated between, but the shock is intended to digest Fuchou pressure above 3000 points, pre-short positions, or wet storage may be bargain-hunting investors jiacang or transfer positions.
success or a failure of the oil: Wu Ming
success or a failure in the oil
Moderator: CPI announced this week the central bank to raise reserve ratio, but the market does not seem to worry about, but rather a pull oil , panic.
if rain rustling: in fact the market is in disregard of the risk, to say the least, plus a reserve fund will be able to freeze 300 billion of the base currency, the intensity is far greater than monetary tightening interest rates, but the market interpreted as bad more beneficial than the best, this practice of ignoring the risk of alarming the policy. Last month the central bank to raise interest rates, we have to talk to, the central bank a shot, never moving once only reason, of course, these policies should be a gradual accumulation of pressures and recognized by the market process, which is going through the process of moving from quantitative to qualitative change, and in the process will still be the market trend of the original run.
Moderator: can not talk about the China Petroleum, on the stock role and resistance, you have talked about many times.
if rain rustling: Last week we talked to, the key to China's oil price of 12.32 is coming, on Thursday pulled up the market into a panic, whether or ICBC, China's oil have reached the position of the resistance platform this spring, only Sinopec and 10% of the space.
Moderator: How much pressure on this platform?
if rain rustling: we can look at the first start of the Vanke A , after the arrival platform, has been 5 weeks, still can not break through, then the international oil prices, breaking the platform can promote resistance to the Chinese oil it? I think it is more difficult. Vanke A can not break through, because the policy to suppress the face of real estate International oil prices rose, the full response in the domestic context of inflation, may not immediately adjust prices, this is a precedent in 2008, in other words, the international oil price rose, in fact, bad for oil stocks is a partial factor in this background, oil alone an excise tax rebate good, led inevitably emboldened enough. But we should also see the look on line, the oil is a 22-month time span a large double bottom structure, if Bit 14 yuan break through the neckline, the measure increases up to 18 yuan, so even if the short-term adjustment of oil, but has been very clear trend of middle strength, so investors may want to learn to adjust to from the Hutch that, while we have a total of 3100 ~ 3400 point correction of 15 weeks, is a relatively large transaction-intensive area in the weekly RSI is overbought indicators, while the lack of policy support surface, it is difficult overnight. unless an extreme way is to follow the end of 2006 oil Hutch ICBC Bank of China, to use its leverage index, breaking high of 3478 points, to completely activate the bull market, thinking, new money led admission. This week the two trends of concern, First meeting of new shares out of the soaring market, such as three-dimensional works up to 60% gain in two weeks, this high-profit fund accumulated over small cap stocks with high strength, market speculation that the commencement of annual dividend market. Second, the expected level in the U.S. weekly rebound finally appeared, Zhou Changyang pressure leading to 10-week moving average of 78.5 bits, the time to judge the rebound cycle should be about three weeks.
five-week moving average will be tested
Moderator: thought of the callback, I did not expect to be so adjusted tragic.
Rafting: This week most investors hear the word is probably to be inflation, tightening the .10 CPI has been 4.4% a month, 11 months since, the trend did not alleviate the meaning, coal prices, rising steel prices, cement prices, even the vegetables are prices, why? the background of commodity prices, means the United States of rogue; small environment is relatively low domestic interest rates.
This does not, this week raised the reserve rate, when for the first time raised the reserve ratio, the market interpreted as positive, the preceding time interest rates, the market is still seen as positive, Dikaigaozou, raised the reserve ratio this week, Thursday or Dikaigaozou, Shanghai that rose nearly 70 points in intraday trading, but unfortunately these 70 points and 70 points the previous rise is quite different from the oil almost daily limit, always happens, is the beginning of market turmoil, really late Thursday small-cap Diving Unit collective. Now the case index and March may be the same as the real estate industry, real estate was a bad policy introduced two of three when the market did not agree to the fifth, the start can not stop, and then a, good! because of inflation.
Moderator: have not noticed a big bear share?
Rafting: never considered to belong defense assets into the company will not consider the future of defense assets into the company, in the next few years, nor will the Central defense assets into the existing aircraft industry as the actual controller of the listed companies. too is not difficult to avoid such risks, first of all do not take the eggs in one basket, then do not listen to the so-called news, even the best stocks, then the relationship of iron also depends on the disk to determine the fate of their own money. so that it can not hit by bad luck.
Moderator: after the shock, how do we survive, may be placed in front of all the major issues.
rafting: the trend in shock, survival has always been my strong suit, last week resources, this week's magnetic materials, Xia off next week, environmental protection, nuclear science and technology, Kodak shares, etc., are short-term excess returns can be completed species, the subsequent fall further if it good, then the meat section of the thickest War came. resources are preferred, some brokerage stocks, such as GF can also be observed, of course, I do not advocate any action based investors did not learn from me, because I play a high-risk game, look for a buy a board , but no tricks, no good attitude, you buy a board but also a daily limit. speculative investment are the same to go in the market, and ultimately should have its own set of boxing, do not say victorious, at least self-defense, without which you dare take the stock market this arena?
Moderator: Next week, military regulations set it to everyone.
rafting: the market next week, five week moving average will be tested, if the stock index 3040 points the breakdown, it will test 2800 points and a line directly, which is the market's bottom line, of course I do not worry about these issues, because I had no center line on the market too optimistic, as long as operational varieties on the line, investors will continue to control the position, focus resources, industry, Disney's repeated opportunities.
Moderator: Please re-home day win, it still mince words.
day win the Home: the 2010 November 11, after Japan and the trend of the oil boom Comparison July 29, 2009, can be concluded on November 16 corresponding to August 4, 2009, to counter, after the fall. because every time the broader market rose when the band is about to end, are the petrochemical Double Bear (Ten Sichuan Changhong few years ago followed by China Unicom and Shanghai Petrochemical, etc.), then set out super-large-cap stocks, this rule after several years of verification, and become the top of the old magic investors fled. at least according to my experience, there are nine times ten is correct.
Moderator: and then ask Beijing Zhang, behind the strange name, a legend in charge, a simple point this week, to see how the broader market?
Beijing Photo: tape from the beginning of this week's correction, range of at least 300 to 500 points, does not rule out deeper may, on the way there, even at levels level counter, or three days, it is hard to change the callback decline and investors to avoid the risk-based operation.
future market may be a Quotes of the first rehearsal. Friday, the first major heavyweight Industrial and Commercial Bank of China rose 4.33%, the new approach seems to be another body test.
adjustment from 7.29 in 2009 before the Mid-Autumn Festival this year, the domestic economic structure transition and support the strategic context of the emerging industry, A-share market as represented by the raised funds will be configured for the inherent power gradually shifted its focus to a large consumer, strategic emerging high-growth stock valuation. Third Quarterly Bulletin revealed that the overall stock raised funds position reached 81.95%, close to record high levels of positions. the one hand, the remaining funds can be configured to the mainstream is not surplus funds; the other hand, the current structure of fund positions, positions occupied more and more small and medium stocks. After calculation, small stock positions positions for more than 50%.
XI before and after the admission of new sources of funding, the scale still can not know these picture, the new flow of capital was represented by the bank underestimated the value of the blue chip. National Day After trends indicate that capital flows to underestimate the value of the new blue-chip sector, the attractiveness of the venue was stronger than funds with high valuation of growth stocks. the future if the new money in this battle to win money, you may be forced to raised funds Rank pressure gradually to underestimate the value of configuration key blue-chip return to the situation. In fact, the recent strength of some varieties of fund holdings concentrated trend has continued weaker than the market, that some fund managers respond faster to adjust positions in the active structure, which transfer positions could directly affect the behavior of the market is a massive amount of shock, especially small and medium stocks.
market after the National Day is a major cause of global inflation expectations and the excess liquidity. the Federal Reserve decided to market before the second quarter of next year purchase 6,000 billion in bonds, the U.S. is expected to restart the implementation of quantitative easing. 9 at the end of this year, China's M2 broad money supply reached 69.64 trillion yuan, 5.03 times in 2000. our many years of sustained accumulation of a large excess currency inflationary pressures, the recent (private equity, private funds) and investment preferences (value, subject matter) are entirely different. This year, especially since the 2319 points since the mainstream, non-mainstream institutional investment preferences more and more Small stocks ; market, the value of the deviation from the mainstream of institutional investors, at least not again back to br> hot money stocks, bonds, QFII, the creation of new liquidity management tools, and so forth. hot money problem was unavoidable, I felt a sense of excitement. you said that the impact of hot money can resist this? stock market will not So set off tidal wave?
A: After the collapse of the gold standard, including the dollar and all currencies, including the renminbi are rootless duckweed. domestic yuan of hot money is flowing around the U.S. dollar seems to have the influx of hot money of the country, internal devaluation, foreign appreciation great risk, it does not meet the traditional Chinese culture anchor index to the yuan, the central bank can not in any high-sounding reason junk currency, domestic price stability or slight increases year by year, the exchange rate with foreign currencies to float freely in RMB-denominated international commodity price stability, neither in fear of hot money coveted nor imported inflation into account, is to solve the currency problem once and for all the good policy.
small cap stock market index is now a record high, resource stocks have been stir-fried, financial and real estate stocks also eager confidence comes from the long Foreign currency devaluation caused inflation expectations, but hyperinflation is the enemy of the economy to inflation as an excuse to launch a market is undoubtedly in the suicidal. a few years ago that wave bull market, unknown to everyone, is 无知者无畏, current market knowledge Mountain tiger, undeterred, this rootless duckweed of suicide based on market, How can we help people Suye horror!
Mi Zhang old and spicy, just published a series of articles on the wealth of the warehouse. wealth of storage to a certain extent promote the economic development of the advance and retreat, in the absence of anchor currency of the era is particularly necessary to find the warehouse store of wealth. real estate as a preferred form of wealth storage are suffering strong interference. art collection to Tell the merits of the cost is too high. enterprise business prospects is not easy predict operating results vulnerable to the harm of inflation, with a wealth of stock for the choice of storage is helpless. proven value in Buffett's investment approach is authentic, some additional investment in technology stocks in the spirit of adventure, and then supplemented by appropriate technology Analysis of the small smart, good care may be the ideal way to stock the warehouse it.
correction of the depth of the broader market appears: Joel. Di Napoli
last column, we expect the Shanghai index will continue after the 3035-point adjustment climbed to XOP = 3196 points and a line. In the past two weeks, the broader market really successful breakthrough in 3035 points, went straight to the XOP = 3196 points this week from this Friday in four points short of the target location of the point of 10 fell suddenly turn around. the next two weeks, the Shanghai Composite Index may be how to develop it? Let us first look at the weekly chart (see Figure 1).
Download (54.79 KB)
2010-11-13 21:47
From the weekly chart, we see that stocks in weekly reach the target point Di Napoli extended the vicinity of 3196 points out of a short points support level. In the broader market, where there is still a trace of hope for a rebound. If below, the market will call back to the depth of the gold overlay F3 = 2855/F5 = 2807 point position. As the broader market is still showing in the week strong line rise. tape superimposed on to achieve gold F3 = 2855/F5 = 2807 points after a strong rebound would occur. if gold overlay F3 = 2855/F5 = 2807 points unfortunately subsequently fell below, the market will fall to the gold cluster COP = 2654/F5 = 2650 points. Let us look at the daily chart (see Figure 2).
Download (46.42 KB)
2010-11-13 21:47
from the daily chart , we see the broader market plunged on Friday have fallen to the diving-type non-trend swing Di Napoli predictor line along the oversold region. here with the weekly Di Napoli anchor position is very close to the F3 = 2952 . the broader market on Monday may be a wave of rebound here. rebounded to reach the high point may be near F3 = 3055. relatively small may be continued to rebound to around F5 = 3105 points. then the broader market may continue to fall to a lower gold superposition F3 = 2855/F5 = 2807 point position. Let us look at hours of line graphs (see Figure 3).
Download (72.3 KB)
2010-11-13 21:47
from hour chart, we see, the market free-fall on Thursday and Friday showing a type of straight down almost on all the support points bits are ignored, roaring past. This shows that the decline in the broader market is very fierce, short-lived fad will not reverse the . broader market decline has now dropped to fluctuations in XOP = 2984 points, the points and F5 = 2984 points constitute a Di Napoli just gold together. the broader market Monday, a rebound is possible here, and then further to gold overlay F3 = 2952 / F5 = 2937 points. If this process very quickly if the broader market may continue to deep down. this process if delayed for a long time, the broader market there is hope here, a sharp rebound.
Overall, the Shanghai index Di Napoli extended this week in the vicinity of the target point of rapid retracement of 3196, indicating increased volatility here is the stage for this wave of high points. the broader market in the coming weeks may occur deeper pullback. However, they do not fall broken gold overlay F3 = 2855/F5 = 2807 points, it is still possible to force a new high rise.
short-term there is still entangled, but also look at the main line of medium-term: Yuan quarter
's Going experiencing more than one month Quotes after the market turned down abruptly on Friday, stock index fell 5.16%, the highest 14 months of the largest single-day drop, huge with style jumping fall short in one fell swoop would be pushing down the front to 10 in mid-position, long Quotes sudden case of cold, a sharp increase market panic, investors seem confusing to moment.
big round of market environment: the status of tangled
to grasp the pulse of the market, or the first of the big environmental review to be brief . starts after the long National Day holiday market has come quite suddenly and majestic, as represented by strong resource stocks led the surge cycle plates, blue chip quiet for a long time the wind blows. from the news perspective, the market for the Fed meeting in November start a new round of quantitative easing is expected to ignite a long passion for positive.
surge of hot money, is already notorious in the emerging economies. a strong momentum of economic recovery in the region, the United States to implement quantitative easing monetary policy, such as multiple forces, Asian currencies collective hot appreciation. the central bank announced third quarter 2010 financial data show that in September added 100.4 billion U.S. dollars foreign exchange reserves, a record monthly high. the domestic market this year with strong gains since the Fed pushed the quantitative easing policy of de facto In late October, the World Bank issued a mm master balance especially in the return of large capital inflows and currency appreciation of the situation. and HSBC's research report, emerging markets are struggling to cope with but also to maintain control of interest rates and exchange rates, the U.S. and Europe to implement loose monetary policy may lead to capital controls become very popular throughout the developing world. This is the tangled situation, emerging markets are facing inflationary pressures, developed countries face deflationary pressures, which both different cycles, and economic and financial globalization will be transmitted to the different issues together, making the already complicated situation encountered more uncertainty.
A shares plunge on Friday, in addition to the market continued to rise after its amendment in requirements, greater uncertainty should be increased, concerns about tightening policy, which is also reflected in the commodity markets, there resonance down. CPI of 4% during the first time, reaching a 25-month high, the market worried about the severe inflationary pressures, domestic regulation and control measures will not stop, or will lead to overall tightening of monetary instruments. these concerns in the near future the formation of market forces to do more to suppress, we believe that . the concern is not lifted before tightening, the pressure plate is relatively more cyclical, and anti-inflation, a large consumer segment will be part of the funds chosen haven.
and current valuation is still reasonable compared to year, With the index rose, the market valuation has increased, all the A shares in 2009 up to the 23.87 times the static PE, CSI 300 static PE up to the 19.84 times, but continue to be underestimated the value of the interval. taking into account the 2010, 2011, A maintain a rapid growth stock performance, dynamic valuation more attractive. horizontal comparisons, according to Bloomberg data, statistics, A shares of the current PE (EPS using the most recent 12 months of consecutive earnings per share) in the high-end position, but A growth stock is the best, thanks to the sound development of the domestic economic situation, therefore, enjoy a premium has its own rationale. Hang Seng AH Premium index directly reflects the A shares and H shares in recent years, the changing relationship between parity the end of 2007 and early 2008 a premium of A shares peaked after the shock fall, as of Friday, the index closed at 98.08 points, said the A shares at a discount relative to H shares.
above the line to be supported in a greater chance of According to the Guangzhou Institute of Construction
securities monitoring model of the stock market bubble in early warning, from the M1, securitization rate of change, turnover, earnings, turnover, growth investors, the index growth rate of the seven indicators in the extraction of 4 analysis of key factors, which factors can explain all the 4 factors of 87.497%. The latest estimates show that beginning from early June 2010 to 10 the end of the bubble as a pulled up in October, but overall the bubble is still small, indicating that A shares of the stock market is still in a relatively safe location.
our analysis, concerns intensified to tighten the plate caused by the substantial profit-taking, thereby triggering a panic disk emission, resulting in significant down market on Friday. As a result of the Growth of support, and the heavyweight position at a relatively reasonable valuation, is expected to bear the limited space to expand downward, the index of the opportunity to be supported above the line larger. from the current point of view, investors should not be too much emphasis on short-term market performance, but should focus on preparing for next year, for 2011, the proposed follow the and modern service industries, these opportunities can be based on long-term view.
inflation uncertainty in determining the opportunity of looking for: Planning / months, the dollar continued to depreciate, commodity prices continued to rise, resources, increases in the prices of imported inflation to become apparent, interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio several times and failed to effectively control the inflation expectations, 10-month CPI increase is 25 months since hitting a new high, with the United States to implement the second round of quantitative easing, positive inflation-depth development of China. To curb inflation, the central bank a new round of interest rate, adjusting measures to keep such registration may be gradually introduced, capital and tightening will run through the future for a long period of time.
the gradual increase in inflation expectations and will continue in the context of a long time, and food-related upstream and downstream industry chain enterprises that may be the ultimate goal of inflation under uncertainty access to identifying opportunities.
. macro articles.
policy or should inflation risk will continue to tighten Hou Fei
correspondents on Thursday, the National Bureau of Statistics announced in October of the macro data. In addition to focusing on CPI solidarity with the people's livelihood away, we can see from these data which inkling of economic development and the future direction of policy changes?
monetary policy has emerged
inflection point or beyond market expectations, CPI in October a record 25-month high of 4.4%. Among them, food prices rose 10.1%, and the people closely related to the rising price of vegetables is 31%. annual CPI at 3% target is more difficult, with statistics Sheng to transport spokesman as saying that accelerated on a monthly basis. Shun Gao Shanwen securities believe that this situation may continue for some time in the follow-up to maintain or even worse, PPI accelerated the momentum of the chain, especially worthy of attention.
caused a sharp rise in the CPI index cause, the National Bureau of Statistics explanations include natural disasters, imported inflationary pressures, the dollar, less stringent domestic liquidity and the speculation and other factors. but held in the end, inflation is a monetary phenomenon in fact, no matter for what purpose, the fundamental cause of inflation factor is excess liquidity, or more generally is target of 7.5 trillion of credit is also facing an embarrassing situation to be a breakthrough.
can therefore speculate that in order to achieve full-year inflation target of 3%, unless the Bureau of self-fabrication of data, otherwise, the only way is to control liquidity . In fact, the central bank's recent actions have shown in all the problem. from October 19 the central bank announced interest rate less than a month, the central bank also announced on November 10 will raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. month , the central bank quasi-two Tiaocun, one more rate hike is very large commitment to control inflation.
As for how the future monetary policy, the experts Great minds think alike, believe the central bank's monetary policy shift may have occurred, from the partial turned loose monetary policy steady. many brokerage analysts believe the year will once again raise interest rates and raising the deposit reserve ratio, Societe Generale Securities Lu political commissar is clear that State Bank of million of securities INNER said, . more optimistic, suggesting economic recovery and stability.
10 Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods increased by 18.6%, although a slight change in the internal, but overall is still showing steady growth, showing that the spending power is growing. At the same time, into the to maintain relatively stable growth in exports, total imports and exports in October rose 22.9%, respectively, the total and 25.3%, according to trade dollars, excluding seasonal factors, exports on a monthly increase of 5.5% for 5 months, the first positive growth , while imports increased 7.3% on a monthly basis. In addition, after pre-policy crisis, the indicators are in real estate has been improvement in October, sales area and sales prices both higher, construction and new construction area is also a slight rise (see Figure 1).
Download (36.48 KB)
2010-11-13 21:51
but other than power generation and real estate investment and other areas of industry, economic situation and does not seem to optimistic.
can be seen from Figure 2, electricity generation from 2010, has been showing declining trend accelerated in October but there is a downward trend. In addition to other real estate investment growth stabilized, and equipment investment are closely related to general equipment manufacturing industry, electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing sector growth rate fell 1.4 percentage points and 1.9 percentage points; and infrastructure investment is closely related to black metal smelting and pressing industry, non-metallic mineral products industry has continued industrial growth decline.
Download (34.08 KB)
2010-11-13 21:52
particular note is the consumption of crude steel, since June has continued to maintain its negative growth rate year on year, while The last time the index turned negative in the second half of 2008. This is a new construction area with the rise of real estate, and automotive production increases the formation of a clear divergence. In this regard, the macro Guoxin Securities analyst Lin Songli on the growth began to turn to adjust the structure, topic, an urgent need for ZF livelihood issues in the fight against inflation must be a difference. UBS Securities, on inflation is expected to raise interest rates before and after December first. optimistic about the anti-inflation by the end of Ran
correspondents Maman dramatic changes in the market this week, China Petroleum, China Petrochemical this under the most ... the sense of smell as an investment
No comments:
Post a Comment